Where: Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
When: Saturday, September 7th at 7:00 PM EST
Watch: FOX
Betting Odds
Spread: Kansas Jayhawks -4
Total: Over/Under 57.5
This matchup between the Kansas Jayhawks (1-0) and Illinois Fighting Illini (1-0) is intriguing, as both teams are coming off dominant victories in their season openers. Let’s break down the key stats and factors that could influence this game.
Offensive Comparison
Kansas Jayhawks: Scored 48 points against Lindenwood, showcasing a balanced offense with 199 passing yards and 331 rushing yards. They’ve been very efficient, averaging 11.04 yards per point, and explosive in the passing game, averaging 14.21 yards per pass attempt. Their rushing attack was even more impressive at 7.52 yards per carry.
Illinois Fighting Illini: Also scored 45 points in their opener against Eastern Illinois, with 242 passing yards and 244 rushing yards. They were similarly efficient with 10.8 yards per point and 5.81 yards per rush.
Defensive Comparison
Kansas Jayhawks: Allowed just 3 points and showcased strong defense by limiting Lindenwood to 127 passing yards and 75 rushing yards. However, their defensive yards per point stat (67.33) suggests that opponents might have trouble scoring but can still gain yardage. Their passing defense gave up 7.06 yards per pass, which is something to watch against Illinois' passing attack.
Illinois Fighting Illini: Came out strong, giving up only 147 passing yards and 49 rushing yards. Illinois has shown an impressive ability to control the line of scrimmage, allowing only 2.23 yards per rush.
Head-to-Head
The two teams met last year, with Kansas winning 34-23. Kansas’ ability to run the ball effectively (262 yards, 5.95 YPC) was a key factor in that game, and their defense limited Illinois to 341 total yards. This history suggests Kansas’ running game could once again be a deciding factor.
Turnover Differential
A key aspect of this game will be turnovers. Kansas has a +1 turnover differential, while Illinois is at -4 after their opener. Illinois will need to tighten up their ball security to avoid giving Kansas extra opportunities.
Betting and Trends
Spread: Kansas is favored by 4 points. They’ve covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 games, though they failed to cover in their season opener.
Total Points: The total is set around 57.5-58.5, with Kansas games trending towards the over on the road. Illinois has seen the total go over in 4 of their last 6 games.
Game Outlook
Kansas Offense vs. Illinois Defense: Kansas’ explosive rushing and passing attack will challenge Illinois, but Illinois’ stout defense, particularly against the run, should prevent Kansas from replicating last year’s rushing success. If Kansas can establish their ground game early, they may control the pace of the game.
Illinois Offense vs. Kansas Defense: Illinois will look to take advantage of Kansas’ vulnerability in the passing game (7.06 YPA allowed). Their balanced attack should allow them to move the ball efficiently, especially if Kansas’ defense gives up yardage without breaking.
Prediction
Kansas’ superior offensive balance and Illinois' turnover struggles give the edge to the Jayhawks. If Illinois can control the ball and force Kansas into passing situations, they could keep it close. However, Kansas’ ability to score in chunks and their previous success against Illinois make them the favorite.
Final score prediction: Kansas 35, Illinois 27.
