Michigan State vs. Oregon Predictions: NCAAF Week 6 Best Bets

Game Preview: Michigan State Spartans (3-2) vs. Oregon Ducks (4-0)
Date: October 4, 2024
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Location: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR

Odds:

  • Moneyline: Michigan State +1200, Oregon -2400
  • Spread: Oregon -23.5
  • Total: 52.5 points

Analysis:

The Michigan State Spartans will be facing an uphill battle against the undefeated Oregon Ducks. The Spartans are 3-2 on the season, but their offense has been inconsistent, averaging just 21.8 points per game. Michigan State's defense has kept them competitive, allowing only 19 points per game, but that won’t be enough to stop Oregon’s high-powered offense.

Oregon has been strong on both sides of the ball, with an offense averaging 36 points per game and a defense giving up just 18.75 points per contest. Oregon quarterback play has been particularly impressive, with the Ducks posting 301.75 passing yards per game, which could exploit Michigan State’s secondary.

Head-to-head, Oregon has dominated this matchup, going 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with Michigan State. While Michigan State has shown some defensive resilience, Oregon’s superior offensive efficiency and home-field advantage make them heavy favorites. Michigan State has struggled against the spread this season, especially at home (0-3 ATS), though they are 2-0 ATS on the road, which offers a glimmer of hope for Spartan backers.

The total for this game is set at 52.5, and both teams have shown trends towards the under. Michigan State has hit the under in 7 of their last 8 games, and Oregon has seen the under in 5 of their last 7 matchups. With Michigan State’s offensive struggles and Oregon’s solid defense, this could turn into a low-scoring affair, despite Oregon’s offensive firepower.

Power Stats:

  • Michigan State Yards per Point: Offense 17.05, Defense 15.81
  • Oregon Yards per Point: Offense 12.61, Defense 14.23
  • Yards per Pass: Michigan State +2.44 differential; Oregon +1.01 differential
  • Yards per Rush: Michigan State +1.09 differential; Oregon +0.21 differential

Betting Trends:

  • Oregon is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against Michigan State.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oregon’s last 7 games.
  • Michigan State is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games and 3-11 SU in their last 14 road games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Michigan State's last 8 games.

Prediction:

Oregon has too much firepower for Michigan State to keep up, especially at Autzen Stadium. The Ducks should be able to control the game with their balanced attack, while Michigan State’s offensive struggles are likely to continue. Expect Oregon to pull away in the second half, covering the spread and keeping the total points under the set line.

Best Bets:

  • Total Points: Under 52.5 points
  • Spread: Lean towards Oregon -23.5

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