Memphis Tigers vs. South Florida Bulls Free Pick – October 11, 2024

Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

Date: October 11, 2024

Time: 7:00 PM ET

Odds

  • Spread: Memphis -7, USF +7
  • Total: 59.5
  • Moneyline: Memphis -250, USF +200

Game Preview

The Memphis Tigers (4-1) head to Tampa to take on the South Florida Bulls (2-3) in an American Athletic Conference matchup under the lights at Raymond James Stadium. Memphis enters the game as the seven-point favorite, riding a strong start to the season, while South Florida looks to rebound after a few tough losses. However, this matchup could be more competitive than the spread indicates, especially given USF’s recent track record against Memphis.

South Florida's defense has struggled, allowing an average of 290 passing yards per game, which ranks near the bottom nationally. Memphis, led by quarterback Seth Henigan, has the offensive firepower to exploit this mismatch, averaging 270.6 passing yards per game. Despite this, Memphis has been inconsistent defensively, and USF has historically covered the spread in recent meetings, going 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 matchups.

Key Reasons USF Can Cover the Spread

1. ATS Success Against Memphis

USF has a strong record against Memphis in terms of covering the spread, going 4-1-1 ATS in their last six matchups. This history suggests that even when Memphis wins, the Bulls tend to keep the games close enough to cover the spread.

2. Memphis Defensive Vulnerability

Memphis’ defense has shown weakness, especially in the fourth quarter, where they allow an average of 11.8 points per game, ranking 129th in the country. This gives USF a chance to close the gap late and potentially cover the seven-point spread.

3. Penalty Issues for Memphis

Memphis ranks 131st in penalties per game, averaging 9.2 penalties for 83 yards. This lack of discipline could allow USF to take advantage of extra opportunities and extend drives, helping them stay competitive and within the spread.

Although Memphis has the stronger record and more potent offense, their defensive lapses and penalty issues give USF a solid opportunity to cover the spread in this matchup.

Pick: Take USF +7

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