Where: Kidd Brewer Stadium (Boone, NC)
When: Saturday, September 28th at 3:30 PM EST
Watch: ESPN+
Betting Odds
Liberty Flames -3.5
Over/Under: 61.0
Game Overview
The current leaders in Conference USA, the Liberty Flames, head to Boone, North Carolina for an East coast showdown with the Appalachian State Mountaineers. As mid-majors, these two programs are not necessarily household names, but there is plenty of football history between these universities. Liberty has had more recent success, but App State has been known to shock the nation with their play on the gridiron. The Flames and the Mountaineers have not played since 2014, but this game has all the makings of a must-watch event. After breaking down both squads, you won’t want to miss my “can’t miss” play for this matchup.
Liberty Flames Betting Preview
The Liberty Flames have seemingly made bowl games in every season in recent memory. They are a program that is trending upwards at a rapid rate, and as they enter week 5, they remain undefeated with a 4-0 record. Liberty has beaten the likes of New Mexico State and East Carolina and has proven that they are poised for another bowl game berth, and potentially even a spot in the expanded college football playoff.
The Liberty offense is led by quarterback Kaidon Salter who is proficient as both a passer and rusher. Salter has thrown 7 touchdown passes against just 1 interception and has added 123 yards rushing. He has established connections with receivers Treon Sibley and Tyson Mobley, but there are four receivers total on this Liberty squad who have surpassed 125 yards on the season. The Flames implement a run-heavy offensive scheme using a two-headed backfield of Billy Lucas and Quinton Cooley. Lucas and Cooley have over 50 rushing attempts each on the year and have both found the endzone four times. Liberty implements a lot of pre-snap motion that makes it difficult for opposing defenses to know where the ball is.
On the defensive side of the ball, Liberty is middle of the road. They rank 82nd in total yardage allowed and are slightly better against the run (73rd) compared to the pass (120th). They have allowed 20.5 points per game to their opponents thus far.
Appalachian State Mountaineers Betting Preview
Appalachian State is historically known as a program that defies all odds and pulls off major upsets against the powerhouse programs. This year, however, they find themselves 2-2 through four weeks of play. The Mountaineers' offense is much more reliant on the pass than they have been in years past. They enter Saturday’s contest ranked 23rd in the nation while averaging 307.5 passing yards per game.
App State’s passing game runs through gunslinger QB Joey Aguilar who has accumulated 1230 yards on 164 attempts. His 56.7% completion percentage is low, but his 2 to 1 TD to interception ratio demonstrates that he values ball security. The Mountaineers’ receiving core is led by Kaedin Robinson who has accounted for 375 yards, but he has yet to find the endzone and is not a threat in the red zone. Wide receiver Makai Jackson and tight end Eli Wilson lead App State with 2 touchdown catches apiece.
An area that Appalachian State needs to improve on drastically is their run game. They have averaged only 130.8 yards per game on the ground, mostly coming from running back Anderson Castle. As a team, they have 5 rushing touchdowns on the season, and surprisingly QB Joey Aguilar tops the list with 2.
Defensively, the Mountaineers are weak. They allow 463.5 yards per game in total offense, with an even distribution of passing and rushing yards. The defense has surrendered 35.8 points per game so far, which is not a recipe for success. This group is heavily reliant on forcing turnovers, but they have only mustered a single interception.
Free NCAAF Betting Pick
Looking at each of these programs’ schedules, there is a common opponent. Both Liberty and Appalachian State played and beat East Carolina. Liberty was able to secure the victory by 11 points at home, while App State squeaked out a 2-point victory on the road. App State had their way through the air against the Pirates’ defense but could only tally 81 rushing yards. Liberty, on the other hand, played an extremely balanced game and nearly ran for and passed for 200 yards each.
With this common opponent, I think it is clear that Liberty is a better overall football team, and their adjustable playstyle keeps them in every game. This App State team has struggled to stop opponents from scoring and Liberty should have their way whether they choose to attack in the air or on the ground. Give me the Flames in this one, and 3.5 should be an easy cover.
My Pick: Liberty Flames -3.5
