Game Details
Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) vs. Missouri Tigers (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS)
Music City Bowl
Date/Time: Monday, December 30, 2024, at 2:30 PM EST
Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
TV: ESPN
Betting Odds
Point Spread: IOWA +3 / MIZZ -3
Money Line: IOWA +130 / MIZZ -150
Over/Under Total: 40.5
Game Overview
The Iowa Hawkeyes take on the Missouri Tigers in the Music City Bowl in Nashville on Monday. Both teams closed the regular season with two straight wins, but key absences on offense and a defensive edge for Iowa set the stage for a defensive struggle. Iowa’s suffocating defense, which allowed just 67 points across their last five games, faces a Missouri offense led by a depleted lineup missing top contributors.
How Each Team Looks
Iowa enters the bowl game after a solid defensive stretch to close the season, winning four of their last five games. Their late-season surge was fueled by strong defensive play and a knack for creating big plays in crucial moments. However, their offense has struggled all year and will now be without star RB Kaleb Johnson, putting added pressure on Brendan Sullivan, who is working his way back from injury.
Missouri, ranked #19 in the nation, rebounded from a midseason slump to finish with two wins, including a gritty 28-21 victory over Arkansas. QB Brady Cook is doubtful, and the Tigers will be without top receiver Luther Burden, leaving an already inconsistent offense vulnerable against Iowa’s stout defense. While Missouri’s pass-rush and special teams have been bright spots, their defense as a whole lacks the consistency Iowa’s has displayed.
Player Movement
Key absences on both sides of the ball loom large. Iowa’s top offensive weapon, RB Kaleb Johnson, is out, and while QB Brendan Sullivan may return, his form after a long absence is uncertain. Missouri faces similar challenges, with QB Brady Cook doubtful and WR Luther Burden ruled out. These losses significantly lower the offensive ceiling for both teams, contributing to the low total of 40.5 points.
What to Expect
This game is likely to be dictated by defense and special teams, areas where Iowa has a clear edge. Missouri’s depleted offense will have trouble finding traction against Iowa’s defense, which excels at pressuring the quarterback and forcing turnovers. Iowa’s ability to capitalize on special teams and avoid costly mistakes could prove pivotal in a low-scoring contest.
While Missouri has shown resilience and efficiency throughout the season, Iowa’s tougher schedule and battle-tested defense may give them the upper hand. Expect a grind-it-out game where points are at a premium, with Iowa’s disciplined approach potentially tipping the scales in their favor.
Betting Pick and Rationale
The Tigers have had a strong season, but their offense faces an uphill battle against Iowa’s elite defense. Without their top playmakers, Missouri will struggle to sustain drives and convert in the red zone. Iowa, while limited offensively, has the tools to control field position and force the Tigers into mistakes. Look for the Hawkeyes to hang tough and cover the spread in a tightly contested game.
Pick: Iowa Hawkeyes +3
Prediction: Iowa 20, Missouri 17