Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 6
Date/Time: Saturday, October 5, 2024, at 8:00PM EDT
Location: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, California
TV: CBS Sports Network
Betting Odds for Hawaii vs. San Diego State
- Point Spread: Hawaii +2.5 / San Diego State -2.5
- Money Line: Hawaii +110 / San Diego State -130
- Over/Under: 48.5 points
Mountain West Conference Opener: Who’s Got the Edge?
The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors head to San Diego to face the Aztecs in what could be a critical matchup for both teams. With each squad searching for consistency, this game sets the tone as they dive into Mountain West Conference play. Hawaii’s season has been up and down, while San Diego State is trying to shake off a sluggish start.
What to Expect from the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Hawaii’s 2024 season has been a mixed bag, to say the least. On one hand, they held a talented UCLA team to just 16 points, and on the other, they got steamrolled by Sam Houston State, 31-13. So, it’s tough to know exactly what we’re getting. One thing that’s clear is quarterback Brayden Schager is the key to this offense. He’s got 9 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on the season—so he can make plays, but he can also get you into trouble.
Schager’s arm strength is undeniable, and when he’s on, he works well with receivers like Potele Ashlock and Dekel Crowdus. His 374-yard, 4-touchdown performance against Northern Iowa shows just how high his ceiling can be. But inconsistency plagues this team, especially on defense. One week they hold UCLA to 16 points, and the next, they’re getting gashed for 31 by Sam Houston State. If they can force turnovers like they did against UCLA, they’ve got a shot to make this interesting.
Key Stats for Hawaii
- Pass Yards/Attempt: 6.7 (Hawaii) vs. 6.3 (San Diego State defense)
- Rush Yards/Game: 96 (Hawaii) vs. 182.2 (San Diego State defense)
Hawaii’s offense will rely on Schager to stretch the field against a beatable San Diego State secondary. The big question is whether they can get their ground game going or whether the Aztecs' run defense will keep them one-dimensional.
San Diego State Aztecs: Can They Turn It Around?
The Aztecs haven’t had an easy time this season either, but they’re showing signs of life. Yes, they’re 1-3, but last week’s one-point loss to Central Michigan (22-21) was a step in the right direction, especially for freshman QB Danny O’Neil. He threw two touchdowns in that game, which gives you some hope, but his play is still shaky.
That said, running back Marquez Cooper has been a consistent force. He’s averaging 5.2 yards per carry, and if San Diego State is going to win this game, it’ll likely be because Cooper had a big day against a Hawaii defense, giving up 182 rushing yards per game. O’Neil will need to limit mistakes and let Cooper do the heavy lifting to keep the offense balanced and moving forward.
Key Stats for San Diego State
- Rush Yards/Attempt: 4.3 (SDSU) vs. 3.9 (Hawaii defense)
- Sacks/Game: 3.5 (SDSU) vs. 2.0 (Hawaii offense)
The Aztecs' defense will be key here. If they can pressure Schager and force turnovers—something Hawaii has struggled with—they’ll have a big advantage. Their pass rush is one of the best in the country, ranking 6th in sacks per game, and that could spell trouble for Hawaii’s offensive line.
Betting Trends & What We Can Expect
Both teams have been unreliable against the spread (ATS), with Hawaii sitting at 2-2 and SDSU at 1-3. But one trend stands out: the under. Hawaii has hit the under in all four of their games, while San Diego State has gone under in three out of four. With two inconsistent offenses and some surprisingly decent defensive play, this game looks like a low-scoring battle.
Loot’s Final Pick: Who’s Covering the Spread?
In a game like this, where both offenses have struggled to find consistency, I’m rolling with the Aztecs at home. San Diego State’s defense can generate enough pressure to rattle Schager and force him into mistakes. Combine that with a heavy dose of Marquez Cooper, and I see the Aztecs grinding out a tough win. Take San Diego State to cover the -2.5 point spread in a low-scoring affair.
Final Pick: San Diego State -2.5