Fresno State vs Nevada – College Football Week 8 Betting Preview

Date: October 18, 2024
Location: Mackay Stadium, Reno, NV
Time: 10:30 PM ET
Betting Odds: Fresno State -2.5, O/U 50.5, Moneyline: Fresno State -135, Nevada +115

Lead-In

Fresno State (3-3) visits Nevada (3-4) in this Mountain West showdown, with the betting total set at 50.5 points. Both teams have shown offensive inconsistencies, and the defenses should control the tempo of this game, making the Under a strong play.

Betting Odds and Recent Form

Team Record ATS Offense (PPG) Defense (PPG) OU Record
Fresno State 3-3 3-3 28.8 27.1 3-3
Nevada 3-4 5-2 24.7 26.6 4-3

Key Stats to Support the Under

  • Fresno State Offense: The Bulldogs are averaging 28.8 points per game but have struggled against tougher defenses, scoring just 17 points in their most recent game against Washington State and only 14 against UNLV. They average just 3.4 yards per rush (110th in the nation), making it difficult to sustain long drives.
  • Nevada's Defensive Efficiency: Nevada allows 27.1 points per game, but their run defense ranks 71st, giving up only 146.6 rushing yards per game. This could force Fresno State into longer passing situations, slowing down the game.
  • Fresno State’s Recent Struggles: Fresno State has averaged only 17 points per game in their last two losses, which makes it unlikely they’ll push this game into a high-scoring affair. They’ve also turned the ball over frequently, with 8 interceptions thrown by starting QB Mikey Keene this season.
  • Under Trends: Fresno State has gone Under in 2 of their last 3 games. Nevada, despite allowing points, has been able to contain opponents at home, contributing to 3 Unders in their last 5 games.

Matchup Breakdown

Both teams are struggling offensively, particularly Fresno State, who has seen a significant dip in scoring against stronger defenses. Fresno State is averaging 272.8 passing yards per game (32nd), but Nevada’s pass defense (108th) is unlikely to give up explosive plays, especially with Fresno State’s inconsistency in the passing game (7 TDs, 8 INTs).

Nevada’s offense has also been inconsistent, ranking 85th in yards per play (5.6) and facing a Fresno State defense that, while not elite, can limit big plays. Both teams rank outside the top 60 in scoring defense but are unlikely to generate the offensive output necessary to push the total over 50.5.

Power Stats Comparison

Stat Fresno State (Rank) Nevada (Rank)
Yards Per Play (Offense) 5.6 (85th) 5.2 (103rd)
Yards Per Play (Defense) 6.1 (102nd) 6.1 (103rd)
Rush Yards Per Game (Offense) 114.3 (110th) 122.1 (103rd)
Pass Yards Per Game (Offense) 270.8 (32nd) 198.1 (84th)
Points Per Game (Offense) 28.8 (67th) 24.7 (89th)
Points Per Game (Defense) 27.1 (89th) 26.6 (83rd)

Prediction

Both Fresno State and Nevada have had issues with consistency on offense, and neither defense has been stellar, but the offensive struggles should keep this game from being a high-scoring affair. The Under 50.5 looks like the best play, with both teams likely to focus on the ground game and limit big plays.

Take the Under 50.5


SAVE BIG MONEY BY BETTING AT -105 REDUCED ODDS!
Quit wasting your hard earned money! Make the switch from -110 to -105 odds today
You'll be so glad that you did! Click Here!
DOCS

College Football Betting

BetOnline – Bet on college football games using your credit card at an online sportsbook where it WILL work for deposits and where they offer a generous 50% sign-up bonus!

Bovada – One of the oldest and most trusted bookies on the web. A welcoming bonus of 50% up to $250 FREE awaits you!

GTBets – Deposit $150 and get $150 FREE! One of the best promotions on the web allows you to pick your (2) favorite NCAA football teams and receive a FREE point every time you bet those teams!

Know Your Key Numbers – This is a fancy term for common margin of victory. It’s very important that you know these before placing your bets!

2017/2018 College Football Predictions – Odds for each team to win the college football playoff along with predictions of teams that have a legit shot of winning it all, including a longshot pick.

2017 Heisman Trophy Odds – Picks to Win – College football pundits are expecting either Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield to win the Heisman this year. Loot takes a look at these and other names that offer tremendous wagering value.

Misc.

College Football Conferences – List of all NCAA football conferences including the teams that make up each conference.

Heisman Trophy Winners – A complete list of Heisman Trophy winners (college football’s best player award) in chronological order, dating back to 1935.

Famous College Football Coaches – Behind every great team is an even better coach. Check out Loot’s picks for the greatest of all-time.

Other Cool Sites

Bettorsworld College Football Picks – These guys have been online since the late 90’s and for good reason… They pick winners against the spread! Highly recommended!