Date: October 18, 2024
Location: Mackay Stadium, Reno, NV
Time: 10:30 PM ET
Betting Odds: Fresno State -2.5, O/U 50.5, Moneyline: Fresno State -135, Nevada +115
Lead-In
Fresno State (3-3) visits Nevada (3-4) in this Mountain West showdown, with the betting total set at 50.5 points. Both teams have shown offensive inconsistencies, and the defenses should control the tempo of this game, making the Under a strong play.
Betting Odds and Recent Form
Team | Record | ATS | Offense (PPG) | Defense (PPG) | OU Record |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fresno State | 3-3 | 3-3 | 28.8 | 27.1 | 3-3 |
Nevada | 3-4 | 5-2 | 24.7 | 26.6 | 4-3 |
Key Stats to Support the Under
- Fresno State Offense: The Bulldogs are averaging 28.8 points per game but have struggled against tougher defenses, scoring just 17 points in their most recent game against Washington State and only 14 against UNLV. They average just 3.4 yards per rush (110th in the nation), making it difficult to sustain long drives.
- Nevada's Defensive Efficiency: Nevada allows 27.1 points per game, but their run defense ranks 71st, giving up only 146.6 rushing yards per game. This could force Fresno State into longer passing situations, slowing down the game.
- Fresno State’s Recent Struggles: Fresno State has averaged only 17 points per game in their last two losses, which makes it unlikely they’ll push this game into a high-scoring affair. They’ve also turned the ball over frequently, with 8 interceptions thrown by starting QB Mikey Keene this season.
- Under Trends: Fresno State has gone Under in 2 of their last 3 games. Nevada, despite allowing points, has been able to contain opponents at home, contributing to 3 Unders in their last 5 games.
Matchup Breakdown
Both teams are struggling offensively, particularly Fresno State, who has seen a significant dip in scoring against stronger defenses. Fresno State is averaging 272.8 passing yards per game (32nd), but Nevada’s pass defense (108th) is unlikely to give up explosive plays, especially with Fresno State’s inconsistency in the passing game (7 TDs, 8 INTs).
Nevada’s offense has also been inconsistent, ranking 85th in yards per play (5.6) and facing a Fresno State defense that, while not elite, can limit big plays. Both teams rank outside the top 60 in scoring defense but are unlikely to generate the offensive output necessary to push the total over 50.5.
Power Stats Comparison
Stat | Fresno State (Rank) | Nevada (Rank) |
---|---|---|
Yards Per Play (Offense) | 5.6 (85th) | 5.2 (103rd) |
Yards Per Play (Defense) | 6.1 (102nd) | 6.1 (103rd) |
Rush Yards Per Game (Offense) | 114.3 (110th) | 122.1 (103rd) |
Pass Yards Per Game (Offense) | 270.8 (32nd) | 198.1 (84th) |
Points Per Game (Offense) | 28.8 (67th) | 24.7 (89th) |
Points Per Game (Defense) | 27.1 (89th) | 26.6 (83rd) |
Prediction
Both Fresno State and Nevada have had issues with consistency on offense, and neither defense has been stellar, but the offensive struggles should keep this game from being a high-scoring affair. The Under 50.5 looks like the best play, with both teams likely to focus on the ground game and limit big plays.
Take the Under 50.5