Game Details
Clemson Tigers (9-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) vs SMU Mustangs (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS)
ACC Championship
Date/Time: December 7, 8:00 PM ET
Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
TV: [Broadcast Info Pending]
Betting Odds
- Point Spread: SMU -2.5 / Clemson +2.5
- Moneyline: SMU -135 / Clemson +115
- Total: 55.5 (O/U)
Game Overview
The ACC Championship spotlights SMU's dominant run defense against a Clemson team leaning on its own defensive strengths. SMU enters as 2.5-point favorites with an impressive 11-1 SU record and 8-4 ATS mark. Clemson, while a solid 9-3 SU, has struggled against the spread (5-6 ATS) and trends heavily to the Under (3-8 O/U).
Defensive Strengths Dictate Play
- SMU Defense: Allows just 95.8 rushing yards per game and a nation-best 2.8 yards per carry.
- Clemson Defense: Solid but less dominant, giving up 21.6 PPG and 4.7 yards per play (11th nationally).
Both teams match up well defensively, limiting explosive plays and forcing opponents to sustain long drives. Combined with inconsistent quarterback play from Clemson and SMU's slower tempo against top defenses, the Under stands out.
Key Matchups & Analysis
1. SMU's Run Defense vs Clemson Ground Attack
SMU's run defense is elite, holding opponents to 2.8 yards per carry and just 95.8 rushing yards per game (3rd nationally). Clemson averages 190.6 rushing yards per game, but they've struggled against top-tier defensive fronts, and SMU fits that bill.
2. Clemson Defense vs SMU's Passing Game
Clemson's defense allows 21.6 points per game and limits teams to 4.7 yards per play. While SMU averages 35.7 PPG, the Tigers' pass rush (10th nationally with 3.1 sacks per game) will disrupt SMU's rhythm, leading to fewer big plays.
3. Clemson Offensive Inconsistencies
Cade Klubnik's production has been streaky, and Clemson's offense has struggled to move the ball against quality defenses. Against South Carolina (17-14 loss) and Pitt (24-20 win), Clemson managed fewer than 24 points. Facing SMU's strong defense, expect more of the same.
4. Slow Tempo and Methodical Drives
Both teams emphasize defense and avoid turnovers. SMU ranks among the nation's best in minimizing mistakes, while Clemson's methodical approach has resulted in slower-paced, lower-scoring games.
Trends Supporting the Under
- Clemson: 8-3 to the Under this season.
- SMU's Defense: Held opponents under 20 points in 7 of their last 8 games.
- Clemson Last 5 Games: Averaged 39.6 total points combined.
- Neutral-Site Games: Championship games historically play tighter, as defenses dictate the pace.
Betting Pick and Rationale
The Under 55.5 is the clear value play. SMU's elite run defense will stifle Clemson's ground game, forcing Cade Klubnik into difficult passing situations. Meanwhile, Clemson's disciplined defense will limit SMU's offensive production, especially in the red zone.
With both teams relying on their defenses, methodical drives, and clean football, this game sets up to be a low-scoring affair.
Final Prediction: SMU 24, Clemson 20
Betting Pick: Under 55.5