Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-5 SU, 7-5 ATS) vs. James Madison Dukes (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Date/Time: Wednesday, December 18, 2024, at 5:30 PM EST
Where: FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, FL
TV: ESPN
Betting Odds
- Point Spread: WKU +9 / JMU -9
- Money Line: Western Kentucky +270 / James Madison -340
- Over/Under Total: 52
Game Overview
The Boca Raton Bowl brings together two solid Group of Five programs with contrasting recent form. Western Kentucky comes in after a rocky finish to their season, including an embarrassing 52-12 loss to Jacksonville State in the Conference USA title game. On the other side, James Madison—a program on the rise in the Sun Belt—ended with back-to-back losses, including a heartbreaking OT defeat to Marshall.
The big storyline here? JMU’s starting quarterback Alonza Barnett III is out, forcing backup Billy Atkins into the spotlight. For a team with strong rushing depth and a sturdy defense, losing their leader under center makes this matchup far less predictable.
Key Matchups & Betting Angles
1. James Madison’s Ground Attack vs. WKU Run Defense
The Dukes have relied heavily on their running game all season, with George Pettaway and a stable of backs providing a multi-faceted attack. Western Kentucky’s defense has been vulnerable against strong rushing teams, particularly late in the season. If JMU controls the clock and pounds the ground game, it could spell trouble for WKU.
2. Western Kentucky’s Offense in the Underdog Role
While WKU QB Caden Veltkamp and his playmakers (Elijah Young, Kisean Johnson, and Easton Messer) struggled against top competition, they’ve thrived in underdog roles. Head coach Tyson Helton’s track record in bowl games—three straight wins—makes the Hilltoppers an intriguing play.
3. James Madison’s QB Situation
With Barnett sidelined and Washington transfer Dylan Morris also unavailable, the Dukes will lean on Billy Atkins, who lacks significant game experience. Atkins’ limited reps mean JMU may simplify their offense, making them one-dimensional and easier to game-plan against.
Betting Pick: Take the Points with WKU
James Madison’s late-season struggles, combined with their quarterback issues, present a golden opportunity for Western Kentucky to keep this game close. While JMU’s rushing attack will test WKU’s weak run defense, the Hilltoppers’ bowl-game experience and explosive potential on offense make them dangerous underdogs.
Head coach Tyson Helton thrives in these situations, and the near double-digit spread is too enticing to pass up.
Prediction: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +9
Final Score Prediction
James Madison 27, Western Kentucky 24