Ivy League supremacy is on the line as first-place Yale (18-6) visits second-place Dartmouth (13-11). Yale is an 8.5-point road favorite, but Dartmouth is 4-1 SU and ATS at home in Ivy play. Can the Big Green make this a fight, or will Yale continue its dominance? Let's break it down.
Game Details
Yale Bulldogs (18-6 SU, 16-7-0 ATS) vs. Dartmouth Big Green (13-11 SU, 15-7-0 ATS)
Ivy League Showdown
Date/Time: February 28, 2025 | 5:00 PM ET
Location: Edward Leede Arena, Hanover, NH
TV: ESPN+
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Yale -8.5 (-115) | Dartmouth +8.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Yale -425 | Dartmouth +325
Over/Under: 155.5 (o -105 | u -115)
Game Preview & Betting Analysis
This is a crucial Ivy League battle, with Yale leading the conference at 18-6 and Dartmouth sitting in second place at 13-11. The Bulldogs won the first matchup in dominant fashion, 83-67 at home, but Dartmouth struggled from three-point range in that contest. This time, they’ll have the home-court advantage, where they’ve been rock-solid in conference play.
Dartmouth is 4-1 SU and ATS at home vs. Ivy League opponents, with the only loss coming by just one point. The Big Green have also won five of their last six games, with the lone setback being an 88-75 blowout loss at Penn—a possible letdown spot after a four-game winning streak.
Head-to-Head Trends
- Yale won the first meeting 83-67, but Dartmouth failed to hit shots from deep.
- Yale is on a 10-game winning streak and has covered 6 of its last 10 games.
- Dartmouth is 4-1 ATS at home in Ivy League play.
Key Matchups & X-Factors
Yale’s Offense vs. Dartmouth’s Defense
Yale boasts a balanced scoring attack, averaging 78.8 PPG (64th nationally) while shooting a respectable 36.7% from three (55th). They also rank 9th in the country in three-pointers made per game (10.7), which could be a major factor if Dartmouth struggles to contest shots.
On defense, Dartmouth holds opponents to 70.0 PPG (126th) and is excellent at limiting defensive rebounds, ranking 13th in defensive rebounding. They’ll need to control the glass to prevent second-chance opportunities.
Dartmouth’s Offense vs. Yale’s Defense
Dartmouth doesn’t shoot as efficiently, hitting just 44.3% from the field (210th), but they can be lethal when they get hot from deep. In the first meeting, their three-point shooting failed them, but at home, they could bounce back.
Yale, however, has a top-tier defense, ranking 27th in opponent FG% (40.3%). If they can replicate their defensive success from the first matchup, it could be another long night for the Big Green.
Best Bet & Prediction
Yale has been dominant all season and handled Dartmouth easily in their first meeting. However, Dartmouth has been a different team at home, covering in 4 of 5 Ivy League home games and keeping games close.
With Dartmouth’s strong home trends and the potential for a better shooting performance, they should be able to keep this within single digits. The **Over/Under (155.5)** is tricky, as their last matchup went **Under** (150 total points), and Yale’s defense could dictate the tempo again.
Best Bet: Dartmouth +8.5
Lean: Under 155.5
Final Score Prediction: Yale 80, Dartmouth 74
Trends to Watch
- ✔ Dartmouth is 4-1 SU & ATS at home in Ivy League play.
- ✔ Yale is on a 10-game winning streak but just 6-4 ATS in their last 10.
- ✔ Under is 6-4 in Dartmouth’s last 10 games.
Free College Basketball Pick
While Yale remains the better team, the number feels a little too big here. Expect Dartmouth to put up a fight and cover the spread, while the Under remains a viable play given Yale’s strong defense.
Take Dartmouth +8.5
