Purdue Boilermakers (19-5 SU, 14-10 ATS) vs. Michigan Wolverines (18-5 SU, 11-12 ATS)
Big Ten Basketball
Date/Time: February 11, 2025 | 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Crisler Center – Ann Arbor, MI
TV: ESPN
🏀 Matchup Breakdown
The Big Ten's top two teams square off in what could be a pivotal game for conference supremacy. Purdue, led by their efficient offense and rebounding prowess, is looking to sweep the season series after demolishing Michigan 91-64 in their last meeting. Meanwhile, Michigan will rely on their strong home record to counter Purdue’s offensive firepower.
💰 Betting Odds (via BetMGM)
Point Spread: Purdue +1.5 (-105) / Michigan -1.5 (-115)
Total: 150.5
Money Line: Purdue +105 / Michigan -130
📊 Key Reasons to Back Purdue
🔥 1. Purdue’s Dominance in Head-to-Head Matchups
Purdue has had Michigan’s number, winning and covering in two of the last three meetings, including a commanding 91-64 victory in January. The Boilermakers’ size and shooting have overwhelmed the Wolverines in recent contests.
🏀 2. Offensive Efficiency
- 49.6% FG% (4th nationally) vs. Michigan’s 40.6% defense (41st)
- 37.5% 3PT% (30th nationally) vs. Michigan’s 30.8% 3PT defense (50th)
- 78.7 PPG (76th nationally) vs. Michigan’s 70.4 PPG allowed (144th)
Purdue’s ability to score efficiently will be tough for Michigan to slow down.
💪 3. Road Toughness & ATS Trends
- Purdue is 5-2 SU on the road, proving they can win in tough environments.
- Michigan is just 11-12 ATS this season, struggling to cover spreads.
- Purdue is the more consistent ATS team at 14-10.
🏆 4. Rebounding & Turnover Edge
- Purdue ranks 28th in assists per game (16.7) compared to Michigan’s 11.2 (43rd).
- Purdue holds an Assist-to-Turnover ratio of 1.6 (25th), giving them an offensive efficiency edge.
- More second-chance opportunities could be the difference in a close game.
🔮 Best Bet & Prediction
Best Bet: Purdue +1.5 (-105)
Final Score Prediction: Purdue 78, Michigan 74
Purdue’s efficient offense, rebounding dominance, and past success against Michigan make them the right side here. Michigan has been inconsistent ATS, and Purdue already crushed them once this season.
Lean: Over 150.5 (-110)
Seven of the last ten matchups have gone Over, and Purdue’s offensive tempo should push this total over 150.5.
✅ Take Purdue +1.5 and consider the Over. Let’s cash in! 💰🔥
