South Dakota State meets St. Thomas-Minnesota in a Summit League tournament matchup where efficiency numbers point toward the Tommies. This South Dakota State vs St. Thomas betting prediction examines the spread, pace outlook, and whether the Jackrabbits can stay within the number.
South Dakota State vs St. Thomas-Minnesota College Basketball Efficiency Analysis
This Summit League tournament matchup between South Dakota State and St. Thomas-Minnesota comes down to efficiency numbers—and those numbers clearly favor the Tommies. St. Thomas enters with an adjusted net rating that is 8.9 points better than South Dakota State, ranking #96 nationally compared to the Jackrabbits at #193.
In conference tournament settings, efficiency gaps of eight points or more tend to matter. Teams with that type of edge cover spreads close to two-thirds of the time. St. Thomas has built its season around that efficiency advantage, finishing the regular season at 23–8 while South Dakota State sits at 14–17.
The matchup numbers support that difference. St. Thomas owns a 114.5 adjusted offensive rating, which matches up well against South Dakota State’s 110.3 defensive rating. On the other end, the Tommies’ defense also grades slightly better, creating a small but meaningful advantage on both sides of the ball.
Game Information and Odds
Date: Thursday, March 5, 2026
Time: 9:30 PM ET
Location: Denny Sanford Premier Center — Sioux Falls, South Dakota
Current Betting Lines (DraftKings)
- Spread: St. Thomas-Minnesota -6.5
- Total: 149.5
- Moneyline: St. Thomas-Minnesota -325 | South Dakota State +260
Pace and Tempo Outlook
The pace projection suggests a moderate tempo. St. Thomas plays around 70 possessions per game, while South Dakota State averages about 67. Blending those styles together gives this matchup a projected pace of roughly 68–69 possessions.
That tempo favors the more efficient offense, and that’s St. Thomas. When you apply their offensive efficiency to the expected possession count, the Tommies project to score around 77 points. South Dakota State projects closer to 74 points based on their offensive rating against the Tommies’ defense.
Ball security also leans toward St. Thomas. The Tommies protect the ball extremely well and generate slightly more scoring opportunities by avoiding empty possessions.
Defensive Matchup
Defensively, St. Thomas holds a modest edge. The Tommies’ 107.4 adjusted defensive rating is stronger than South Dakota State’s 110.3 mark. While that gap isn’t massive, it becomes meaningful in tournament settings where every possession matters.
Perimeter defense is another advantage. St. Thomas allows opponents to shoot just 30.9% from three, while South Dakota State allows about 33.6%. In games where teams attempt a high volume of threes, that difference can swing several points.
South Dakota State’s defense also struggles to create disruption. The Jackrabbits rank near the bottom nationally in both steals and blocks, which means opposing offenses can run their sets without much resistance.
Offensive Efficiency Comparison
Offensively, St. Thomas has one of the most efficient shooting profiles in the country. The Tommies rank #6 nationally in effective field goal percentage at 59.7%. South Dakota State sits closer to the middle of the pack at 53.1%.
That shooting efficiency gap is significant. Over a full game, it translates to several additional points simply through better shot quality.
Nolan Minessale leads the Tommies’ offense at 21.2 points per game, while Nick Janowski adds scoring support in the backcourt. South Dakota State spreads its scoring more evenly, with Jaden Jackson and Joe Sayler both averaging just over 12 points per game.
St. Thomas also moves the ball well, averaging over 17 assists per game. South Dakota State averages closer to 14 assists, showing a slight gap in offensive execution.
Betting Trends
These teams have already met twice this season. St. Thomas won both games, including a 77–62 victory in their most recent matchup.
South Dakota State has struggled away from home this season, going just 1–4 in neutral site games. St. Thomas has been much more consistent regardless of location.
KenPom projects a similar outcome, forecasting a final score of roughly 79–72 in favor of St. Thomas.
NCAAB Prediction
The efficiency model projects a final score near St. Thomas-Minnesota 77, South Dakota State 74. That projection gives the Tommies the edge but suggests the margin could stay within a few possessions.
While St. Thomas clearly holds the stronger efficiency profile, the market spread of -6.5 may slightly overstate that advantage. Tournament games at neutral sites often tighten up, and South Dakota State’s offense is capable of keeping pace if the Jackrabbits shoot well.
Expect St. Thomas to control most of the game, but the numbers suggest a competitive finish.