A 21-win WCC defensive squad travels cross-country to face a ranked SEC program in NIT elimination territory. The question isn't whether Auburn should be favored—it's whether a 13.5-point spread properly accounts for Seattle U's elite defensive rating and Auburn's season-long struggle to defend anyone.
Seattle U vs Auburn Betting Preview
No. 99 seed Seattle U (21-13) heads into Neville Arena on Sunday evening to face No. 99 seed Auburn (18-16, AP #21) in NIT action, with DraftKings installing the Tigers as 13.5-point home favorites and a total of 146.5. This is an elimination game for both programs, and the spread reflects Auburn's elite offensive firepower—ranked #11 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at 125.5—going up against a Seattle U defense ranked #22 in adjusted defensive efficiency at 97.5. But here's the tension: Auburn's defensive rating sits at 105.4, ranking just #104 nationally, and they've allowed 79.0 points per game, which ranks #315 in the country. The Redhawks defend at an elite level and won't simply fold under pressure. The model projects Auburn by 7.2, creating a 6.3-point gap between market and math. That's a significant discrepancy in a tournament setting where motivation and matchup edges matter more than résumé.
Game Information & Betting Odds
- Date: Sunday, March 22, 2026
- Time: 6:30 PM ET
- Location: Neville Arena, Auburn, AL
- Tournament: NIT
- Spread: Auburn -13.5
- Total: 146.5
- Moneyline: Auburn -1100, Seattle U +700
The Matchup
The single most decisive factor in this NIT matchup is the collision between Auburn's explosive offense and Seattle U's suffocating defense. The Tigers rank #14 in KenPom adjusted offense (124.771) and #11 in adjusted offensive efficiency (125.5), fueled by Keyshawn Hall's 20.8 points per game and a devastating offensive rebounding rate of 36.5% that ranks #4 nationally. They get to the line at the eighth-best rate in the country (44.194% FT Rate) and convert at 74.5%. That's a formula built to overwhelm most opponents.
But Seattle U isn't most opponents. The Redhawks rank #19 in KenPom adjusted defense (97.0572) and #22 in adjusted defensive efficiency (97.5), holding opponents to just 41.5% from the floor (#41 nationally) and 32.1% from three (#79). They force turnovers at the sixth-best rate in college basketball (21.3972% forced TO%) and block 4.8 shots per game (#23). Brayden Maldonado (17.7 PPG) and Will Heimbrodt (14.9 PPG) anchor a disciplined unit that ranks #10 in defensive rating at 96.9. The Redhawks won't run Auburn off the floor, but they'll make every possession a grind.
The problem for Seattle U is on the other end. Their adjusted offensive efficiency ranks #283 nationally at 102.7, with a true shooting percentage of just 54.2% (#261) and an offensive rebounding rate that ranks #305. They score just 71.8 points per game (#280) and rank #302 in KenPom adjusted offense. Against Auburn's porous defense—which allows 53.5% effective field goal percentage (#285) and 36.5% from three (#341)—the Redhawks should find cleaner looks than usual. But can they convert at a high enough rate to stay within two possessions?
Pace will be controlled. Both teams operate in the mid-to-high 60s in tempo, with a projected possession count of 67.7. That's a grind-it-out environment that favors Seattle U's defensive identity and limits Auburn's transition opportunities. The Tigers' offensive rebounding dominance (37.4897% OREB%, #12 nationally) will create second-chance points, but the Redhawks' ability to force turnovers and protect the rim should keep this game closer than the spread suggests. Auburn's turnover rate is excellent at 14.6667% (#48), but Seattle U's pressure defense has forced mistakes all season. This is a classic NIT elimination game where the underdog's defensive strength keeps them live deep into the second half.
Prediction
Auburn's offensive firepower is real, and Keyshawn Hall will create havoc in the paint. But 13.5 points is a massive number to lay against a team that ranks #22 in adjusted defensive efficiency and forces turnovers at an elite rate. The model sees this as a 7.2-point game, and the NIT context—where desperation and effort can equalize talent gaps—supports that projection. Seattle U won't win this game outright, but they'll make Auburn earn every possession in a low-possession environment that favors the underdog. The total projection of 145.8 aligns almost perfectly with the market number of 146.5, offering no edge on the over/under. The play is Seattle U plus the points in a defensive slugfest that stays within single digits deep into the second half.
Projected Final Score: Auburn 78, Seattle U 70
Best Bet: Seattle U +13.5