No. 5 seed St. John's enters the NCAA Tournament Round of 32 as a 3.5-point favorite over No. 4 seed Kansas in a neutral-site clash that pits two elite defenses against each other. The market is asking the Red Storm to win by more than a field goal despite nearly identical efficiency profiles — and that's where the betting conversation begins.
St. John's vs Kansas Betting Preview
DraftKings has No. 5 St. John's laying 3.5 points over No. 4 Kansas in Sunday's 5:15 PM ET tip at Viejas Arena in San Diego. The total sits at 144.5. This is a fascinating NCAA Tournament matchup because the efficiency numbers suggest a coin flip, yet the market is asking the Red Storm to cover a near-field-goal spread. St. John's ranks 17th nationally in adjusted net rating (+27.3), while Kansas checks in at 22nd (+24.7). The gap is just 2.6 points — far narrower than the 3.5-point spread implies. Both teams bring elite defenses to the floor: St. John's ranks 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency (93.9), Kansas 9th (93.0). The difference in this game will come down to offensive execution in a grind-it-out environment, and that's where the Red Storm hold a meaningful edge.
St. John's ranks 39th in adjusted offensive efficiency (121.2) compared to Kansas at 64th (117.7). That 3.5-point gap in offensive rating is the entire spread, and it's rooted in one critical area: offensive rebounding. The Red Storm rank 62nd nationally in offensive rebound rate (33.6%), while Kansas sits 332nd (26.0%). That's a 7.6-percentage-point chasm, and in a game projected for just 68 possessions, second-chance opportunities will be the difference between covering and pushing. Rick Pitino's squad also generates more paint points (1,290 vs 1,138) and turns defense into offense more efficiently (597 points off turnovers vs 411). The total at 144.5 feels about right given the pace blend and defensive strength, but the spread offers value on Kansas as a live underdog.
Game Information & Betting Odds
- Game: No. 5 St. John's vs No. 4 Kansas
- Date: Sunday, March 22, 2026
- Time: 5:15 PM ET
- Location: Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA
- Tournament: NCAA Tournament (Round of 32)
- Site: Neutral
- Point Spread: St. John's -3.5
- Moneyline: St. John's -166 | Kansas +140
- Over/Under: 144.5
The Matchup
The single most decisive factor in this NCAA Tournament game is offensive rebounding. St. John's holds a massive 7.6-percentage-point edge on the offensive glass, and in a game where both teams rank top-11 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, extra possessions will determine who advances. Zuby Ejiofor (15.5 PPG, 6.9 RPG) and Dillon Mitchell (10.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG) give the Red Storm a physical frontcourt that can dominate the glass. Kansas counters with Flory Bidunga (14.7 PPG, 9.0 RPG), but the Jayhawks rank 332nd in offensive rebounding rate — they simply don't crash the glass with the same aggression. That translates to fewer second-chance points and fewer opportunities to overcome Kansas's offensive limitations.
Kansas's defense is elite — they rank 2nd nationally in opponent field goal percentage (38.7%) and 9th in adjusted defensive efficiency (93.0). They also block 5.7 shots per game (6th nationally), led by Bidunga's rim protection. But the Jayhawks' offense is pedestrian. They rank 206th in offensive rating (109.7) and struggle to generate efficient looks in the halfcourt. Darryn Peterson leads the team at 20.0 PPG, but Kansas's 14.1 assists per game (156th nationally) and 51.3% effective field goal percentage (203rd) suggest a team that grinds rather than flows. Against St. John's 11th-ranked adjusted defense, Kansas will need to shoot well from three (34.6%) and protect the ball. The Jayhawks turn it over on 15.4% of possessions (96th), which is manageable, but St. John's forces turnovers at a solid 19.1% clip and converts them into 597 points off turnovers — 186 more than Kansas.
The pace projection of 68 possessions favors Kansas slightly. St. John's plays at 69.5 possessions per game (59th nationally), while Kansas slows it to 67.1 (177th). Bill Self's squad wants to shorten the game and keep it in the 60s, where variance is lower and defensive execution matters more. But St. John's has the offensive firepower to push the tempo when opportunities arise — they've scored 481 fast break points compared to Kansas's 354. Bryce Hopkins (15.1 PPG) and Ian Jackson (11.4 PPG) give the Red Storm multiple scoring options, and their 16.2 assists per game (50th nationally) suggest better ball movement than Kansas.
Injury-wise, Kansas has two questionable players in Samis Calderon and Will Thengvall, both dealing with undisclosed issues. Neither appears in the Jayhawks' top statistical contributors, so their absence wouldn't materially shift the game. St. John's enters fully healthy, which is critical in a single-elimination NCAA Tournament setting where depth and availability matter.
The model projects St. John's to win 73-72, a one-point margin that falls well short of the 3.5-point spread. The market is overvaluing the Red Storm's seeding advantage and undervaluing Kansas's defensive ability to keep this tight. Both teams rank top-25 in adjusted net rating, and both defenses can force ugly possessions. The total projection of 145.4 aligns almost perfectly with the 144.5 market number, suggesting no edge there. But the spread offers clear value on Kansas as a live underdog getting more than a field goal in a game the model sees as a one-possession finish.
Prediction
This NCAA Tournament Round of 32 matchup will be decided in the final two minutes. St. John's has the offensive rebounding edge and the slightly better offensive efficiency, but Kansas's elite defense and disciplined pace control will keep this within a possession throughout. The Jayhawks rank 9th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 2nd in opponent field goal percentage — they don't give up easy looks. St. John's will grind out extra possessions on the glass, but Kansas will counter with timely three-point shooting and rim protection from Bidunga. The model sees a one-point St. John's win, and the 3.5-point spread feels inflated given the near-identical efficiency profiles. In a neutral-site NCAA Tournament game where both teams are desperate to advance, the underdog getting more than a field goal is the play.
Projected Final Score: St. John's 73, Kansas 71
Best Bet: Kansas +3.5. The model projects a one-point game, and the Jayhawks' elite defense gives them every chance to keep this within the number or win outright. The spread is too wide for a matchup this evenly matched.