Game Overview
The Big Ten Tournament is down to its final four teams, and this Saturday’s semifinal matchup features Michigan vs. Maryland. Both teams come into the game with impressive victories in their quarterfinal matchups. Michigan dominated Purdue 86-68, and Maryland blew out Illinois 88-65. However, this game is expected to be much closer.
Michigan, the No. 3 seed, comes into this contest with a 23-9 record and a solid performance in the tournament. However, they’ve struggled against the spread, going just 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games. Michigan has also lost its last three games of the regular season, which included a loss to Maryland in the regular season finale. On the flip side, Maryland enters with a 25-7 record, riding a five-game winning streak, and has been strong both straight up and against the spread.
The Terrapins have proven to be a tough team to beat recently, with a balanced offensive and defensive attack. Maryland also has the upper hand in their most recent matchup, defeating Michigan 71-65 just 10 days ago.
Key Matchups and Analysis
Both teams come into this game with solid statistics, but Maryland has been playing the better basketball lately. Their offense is efficient, ranking 61st in points per game at 78.8, while their defense is also formidable, ranking 41st in the nation, allowing just 66.6 points per game. On the other hand, Michigan’s offense has struggled at times, with a ranking of 47th in FG% (47.9%) and just 72.1 points per game.
Maryland has the advantage in several key areas. They are superior in terms of rebounding, averaging 34.8 boards per game, compared to Michigan’s 30.3. Their assist-to-turnover ratio is also better, and they boast a better overall shooting percentage (47.9% vs. Michigan’s 41.3%).
The previous game between these two teams was competitive, with Maryland holding off a late charge by Michigan to win 71-65. Michigan made a strong comeback attempt in that game, but Maryland’s superior shooting and defense allowed them to stay ahead.
Betting Pick and Rationale
With Maryland riding a strong five-game win streak and already having the upper hand in their recent meeting with Michigan, I like the Terps to cover the -4.5 spread in this matchup. Michigan’s recent struggles against the spread and their inconsistent play throughout the season suggest that Maryland, with the better overall form, should be able to cover. Additionally, Maryland has been playing much more efficiently on both ends of the floor, which gives them the edge heading into this semifinal.
