Florida Gators vs Houston Cougars Betting Preview | NCAA Championship April 7, 2025

Walter Clayton Jr.

Game Details

Date/Time: Monday, April 7, 2025 – 8:50 PM ET

Location: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX

TV: CBS

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Florida -1.0

Moneyline: Florida -115 / Houston -105

Over/Under Total: 140.5

No injuries reported for either side. The table is set for a heavyweight slugfest between elite offense and elite defense in this year’s national title game.

Game Overview

Florida rolls into the final riding a 35-4 record and one of the country’s most efficient, high-octane offenses. They’re 28-11 against the number, covering consistently behind a top-5 scoring attack (85.3 PPG) and elite rebounding effort (41.9 RPG, 3rd nationally). They’ve cleared the number in seven of their last nine games and come in averaging a +15.5 scoring margin.

Houston, the defensive juggernaut, matches Florida’s win total but has been less friendly to backers, sitting 21-16-2 ATS. They’re #1 in opponent FG% (38.2%) and yield just 58.5 PPG. Kelvin Sampson’s crew forces turnovers (9.0 TO/G, #4), limits second chances, and punishes mistakes. They’ve hit a gear defensively in the tournament but will now face a relentless Gators offense.

Key Matchups & Analysis

Offense vs. Defense Clash

This is strength-on-strength: Florida’s 1.159 shooting efficiency (#41) vs. Houston’s 0.985 defensive efficiency (#4). The Gators love to push pace (63.0 FGA/G), dominate the boards, and get second-chance points. Houston grinds tempo, defends the arc (30.3% allowed), and dictates the terms.

Guard Play and Shot Creation

Florida’s Walter Clayton Jr. (34 pts last game) has been electric, while Houston leans on LJ Cryer (26 pts) for perimeter scoring. The Cougars have a slight edge in turnover margin, but Florida’s ball movement (15.5 APG) and rebounding give them multiple paths to success.

Rebounding Battle

Florida ranks #3 nationally in rebounding, including a 37.8% offensive rebounding rate. Houston isn’t far behind, especially on the offensive glass (36.3%, #8), but they’ve been more vulnerable on the defensive boards. This battle could decide second-chance opportunities.

Pace & Poise

Houston thrives in the halfcourt. If Florida runs—and they often do—it could stretch the Cougars’ D. The Gators have scored 40+ in the first half in three straight, testing Houston’s #1 first-half defense (26.1 PPG allowed).

Prediction:

This line’s tight for a reason. Florida brings a potent offensive arsenal with rebounding muscle, while Houston grinds teams into submission. But if you’re banking on one team to get buckets late, Florida has the more reliable scorers and a higher ceiling.

Houston has pulled out gutsy wins with lockdown defense, but Florida’s pace and depth might finally crack that wall. Sharp money leans Florida early, and it’s easy to see why.

I’m on Florida -1. Their ability to rebound, shoot efficiently, and win close games gives them the edge.

Best Bets

Final Score Prediction: Florida 72, Houston 66

Betting Pick: Florida -1

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College Basketball Betting

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