Drake’s recent skid is ugly, but the efficiency math doesn’t fully match a low total in this neutral-site MVC Tournament matchup. I’m focused on the number the market may be mispricing: the total.
Drake vs. Southern Illinois: Efficiency Breakdown (MVC Tournament)
This MVC Tournament game at the Enterprise Center looks simple on the surface: Southern Illinois is playing better right now, Drake is spiraling, and the Salukis own the cleaner defensive profile. The market has Southern Illinois around -5 (Bovada) / -4.5 (DraftKings) with a total of 135.5.
From an efficiency lens, Southern Illinois has the better resume. They’re sitting on a +6.0 adjusted net rating (ranked #105) while Drake is at -2.2 (ranked #200). That’s an 8.2-point net rating gap on a neutral floor, and it shows up most clearly on the defensive end.
Game Info & Odds
Game Time: Thursday, March 5, 2026, 4:30 PM ET
Location: Enterprise Center (St. Louis, MO)
Setting: MVC Tournament (Neutral Site)
Market Lines:
Spread: Southern Illinois -5.0 (Bovada) / -4.5 (DraftKings)
Total: 135.5
Moneyline: Southern Illinois -200 (Bovada) / -238 (DraftKings), Drake +170 (Bovada) / +195 (DraftKings)
Tempo: This Should Stay Controlled
Neither team is trying to turn this into a track meet. Southern Illinois plays at 68.1 possessions per game and Drake sits at 66.8, so the pace blend lands around 67.5 possessions. That’s a “half-court matters” type of game, and that normally gives the edge to the team that can actually defend.
The Matchup: Defense Is the Separator
Southern Illinois is the clear defensive side here. The Salukis are #31 in adjusted defensive efficiency at 99.7. Drake is sitting way back at #252 with a 112.7 defensive rating. That 13.0-point defensive gap is huge for a tournament setting.
The shooting-defense splits support it too. Southern Illinois holds opponents to 30.2% from three (#23), while Drake allows 36.9% from three (#347). That’s the kind of weakness that can break a game open fast if Southern Illinois hits even an average clip.
There’s also a turnover pressure edge. Southern Illinois forces turnovers on 18.60% of possessions (#77), while Drake is down at 14.63% (#317). The Salukis also average 8.1 steals per game (#45) compared to Drake’s 5.5 (#315). In a neutral-site grinder, “extra possessions” matter.
Recent Form (And Why the Market Is Skeptical of Drake)
You don’t have to squint to see why Drake is priced as the underdog. They’re 1-9 in their last 10, allowing 81.6 points per game while scoring 71.4. Southern Illinois is going the other way at 7-3 in their last 10 with a +5.5 scoring differential.
And yes, they just played. Southern Illinois beat Drake 66-61 on February 19. That game looked like what you’d expect here: controlled pace, tight scoring, and every empty possession mattered.
Model Projection
The efficiency-based projection you provided lands around Southern Illinois 73.7, Drake 70.9. That’s a 2.8-point margin—so on pure number-vs-number, you can make a case that Drake +5 has a little cushion.
But the bigger disagreement is the total. The same projection points to a total around 144.5, which sits 9 points above the market’s 135.5. That’s the cleanest “math vs market” gap on the board.
Pick
Best Bet: Over 135.5
The side is tricky because Drake’s recent form (1-9, and 0-9-1 ATS in the last 10 as noted) is hard to ignore. But if we’re trusting the efficiency projection you laid out, the total is where the value lives. Even in a controlled 67.5-possession game, the numbers you provided still point to a score in the low-to-mid 140s more often than not.
Lean: Drake +5 (small) | Best Bet: Over 135.5