The NIT brings us a Wednesday night matchup at The Pit where New Mexico enters as a double-digit favorite against a Sam Houston squad that's been battered by injuries but still brings elite rebounding and pace. The 11.5-point spread feels steep for a tournament setting where desperation and extra possessions can swing outcomes, but the Lobos' defensive profile and home-court edge make this a tricky fade.
Sam Houston vs New Mexico Betting Preview
New Mexico opens as an 11.5-point favorite over Sam Houston in this NIT clash at The Pit on Wednesday, March 18 at 9:00 ET. The total sits at 164.5. The market is pricing in a comfortable home win for the Lobos, who rank #50 in KenPom compared to Sam Houston's #110. But the Bearkats bring an adjusted net rating of +5.9 and rank #23 nationally in pace, which could create more possessions than New Mexico typically prefers. The efficiency gap is real—New Mexico's adjusted defensive rating of 100.3 (#38) towers over Sam Houston's 107.5 (#139)—but the spread asks the Lobos to cover nearly two possessions in a game that projects closer to 70 trips. The total looks inflated given both teams' recent form and the model projection of 154.6 points.
Game Information & Betting Odds
- When: Wednesday, March 18, 2026, 9:00 PM ET
- Where: The Pit, Albuquerque, NM
- Tournament: NIT
- TV: TBA
- Spread: New Mexico -11.5
- Total: 164.5
- Moneyline: N/A
The Matchup
The single most decisive factor in this NIT game is New Mexico's defensive efficiency advantage meeting Sam Houston's injury-depleted rotation. The Lobos rank #38 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (100.3) and hold opponents to just 30.0% from three (#13 nationally), while Sam Houston is missing two key contributors. Forward Isaiah Manning (11.1 PPG) and guard Justin Begg (9.4 PPG, 4.1 APG) are both out for the season, and guard Po'Boigh King (10.6 PPG) is listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury. That's three of Sam Houston's top five scorers either unavailable or uncertain for a tournament elimination game.
New Mexico's ability to force turnovers—19.1% forced turnover rate (#46)—should exploit a Sam Houston team that already ranks #159 in turnover ratio. The Bearkats cough it up 11.7 times per game, and the Lobos convert those mistakes into 537 points off turnovers this season. Tomislav Buljan (12.2 PPG, 11.0 RPG) gives New Mexico an interior anchor who can control the glass and limit second chances, though Sam Houston does rank #11 nationally in rebounding (40.6 per game) and #51 in offensive rebound percentage (33.9%). That's a legitimate edge for the Bearkats—they pull down 13.76 offensive boards per game compared to New Mexico's 10.72—but it may not be enough to overcome the scoring void left by injuries.
The pace dynamic matters here. Sam Houston plays at the 23rd-fastest tempo nationally (71.0 possessions), while New Mexico sits at #45 (70.0). The blended pace projects around 70.5 possessions, which is faster than New Mexico typically wants but slower than Sam Houston needs to maximize its offensive rebounding edge. Jake Hall (13.3 PPG) and Deyton Albury (12.6 PPG, 3.1 APG) lead a balanced Lobos attack that ranks #66 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and they should find clean looks against a Sam Houston defense that ranks #139 nationally (107.5 adjusted defensive rating).
The total of 164.5 looks high given both teams' recent struggles to score. Sam Houston has gone under in four of its last five games, and the Bearkats are averaging just 80.1 points over their last 10 games compared to 82.2 on the season. New Mexico has seen the over hit in five straight home games, but that streak included high-possession Mountain West battles—this NIT setting with Sam Houston's depleted roster and New Mexico's defensive discipline suggests a grindier outcome. The model projects 154.6 total points, nearly 10 points under the market number.
Prediction
New Mexico's defensive efficiency and home-court advantage at The Pit should carry them to a win, but 11.5 points feels like too many possessions to give a Sam Houston team that can control the glass and push tempo. The Bearkats rank 20-10 ATS on the season, including 10-5 on the road, and they've shown they can stay competitive even in losses. The injury situation is concerning, especially if Po'Boigh King can't go, but the offensive rebounding edge (4.4 percentage points) should create enough second-chance opportunities to keep this closer than the market expects. The total is the cleaner play—both teams have trended under recently, and the model sees significant value on the under. In a tournament setting where defensive intensity ramps up and possessions tighten, expect a lower-scoring affair.
Projected Final Score: New Mexico 78, Sam Houston 72
Best Bet: Under 164.5. The model projects 154.6 points, and both teams' recent form supports a grindier NIT game. If forced to play the side, Sam Houston +11.5 offers value, but the under is the sharper angle.