Michigan State Spartans (24-5 SU, 19-9-1 ATS) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (15-14 SU, 10-18-1 ATS)
Big Ten Conference Basketball
Date/Time: March 6, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
Where: Carver-Hawkeye Arena – Iowa City, IA
TV: [Broadcast Information]
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Michigan State -6.5 (-110) | Iowa +6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Michigan State -285 | Iowa +225
Over/Under Total: 151.5 (o -115, u -105)
Game Overview
Michigan State enters this matchup as the top team in the Big Ten, boasting a stellar 24-5 record while covering the spread at a strong 19-9-1 clip. The Spartans have been dominant, particularly on the road, going 7-2 in away games. They’ve also been one of the best defensive teams in the conference, holding opponents to just 41.2 points per second half (ranked 355th).
On the other hand, Iowa has struggled mightily this season, sitting at 16th in the conference with a subpar 15-14 record. The Hawkeyes have been atrocious against the spread, covering in just one of their last 10 games (1-8-1 ATS). Their defensive issues have been glaring, allowing 79.1 PPG (ranked 341st) and giving up an alarming 48.0% field goal percentage to opponents (355th in the country).
Iowa’s one saving grace? Their strong home-court presence. The Hawkeyes are 12-5 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena but have faltered against strong competition, and Michigan State is coming in hot.
Key Matchups & Analysis
Michigan State’s Offense vs. Iowa’s Defense
The Spartans are dominant in many areas, but three-point shooting isn’t one of them. At just 29.7% from deep (350th nationally), Michigan State struggles to stretch the floor. That said, Iowa's defense isn't much better, allowing 48.0% from the field (355th overall) and struggling to defend in transition.
This means Michigan State will likely look to attack inside, where they have a rebounding advantage and get to the free-throw line at a high rate (79.3% FT, 7th nationally). Iowa doesn’t defend without fouling either, which could be a major issue late in the game.
Rebounding Battle Favors MSU
Despite their three-point struggles, Michigan State has a significant edge on the glass. The Spartans rank 7th in total rebounds (37.1 RPG), while Iowa is among the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country (343rd). Second-chance points could be the deciding factor here.
ATS & Totals Trends
- Iowa is just 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games
- Iowa struggles against ranked opponents (1-8 SU)
- Michigan State is 9-20 to the Under
- Iowa gives up points but struggles to score against elite defenses
Best Bet & Prediction
Despite their three-point shooting woes, Michigan State's defensive dominance and rebounding edge should carry them to a comfortable win. Iowa's porous defense will give the Spartans enough high-percentage looks inside to cover the number.
Final Score Prediction:
Michigan State 74, Iowa 65
Best Bet: Michigan State -6.5
Lean: Under 151.5
