Miami (OH) RedHawks (21-7, 15-11 ATS) vs. Ohio Bobcats (15-13, 10-16 ATS)
MAC Basketball – March 1, 2025
Tip-off: 1:00 PM ET
Location: Convocation Center – Ohio
TV: TBD
Betting Odds (via BetMGM)
Point Spread: Ohio -5.5 (-105) | Miami (OH) +5.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Ohio -225 | Miami (OH) +185
Over/Under: 158.5 (O -110 / U -110)
Game Preview: Ohio’s Home Dominance Faces a Tough Miami (OH) Squad
Ohio has historically owned this rivalry, covering the spread in 9 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. However, Miami (OH) got the straight-up win (73-69) in their only previous matchup this season. That said, the Bobcats still managed to cover the spread in that game, showing their ability to keep things close even in losses.
Ohio is a strong 10-2 at home this season, including 6-1 in MAC play, but they've been living on the edge. Three of their last four home conference games have been decided by three points or fewer, making this 5.5-point spread interesting.
Meanwhile, Miami (OH) has been solid overall but inconsistent on the road, going 5-6 away from home. Their offense ranks 30th in scoring (81.6 PPG) and shoots an impressive 39.5% from three (6th nationally), but their defense has been shaky, giving up 75.8 PPG (280th in the country).
Key Matchups & Betting Trends
Miami (OH) Offense vs. Ohio Defense
- Miami (OH) is elite from beyond the arc, shooting 39.5% from three (6th in the country).
- Ohio struggles mightily defending the perimeter, ranking 356th in opponent three-point percentage (37.8%).
- The Bobcats allow 75.8 PPG and struggle in transition, which could be a problem against Miami’s uptempo attack.
Ohio’s Home Success & Close Game Trends
- Ohio is 6-1 in MAC play at home but has played close games, with three of their last four home MAC games being decided by three or fewer points.
- The Bobcats have covered in 9 of the last 10 meetings vs. Miami (OH).
- They lost the earlier matchup but still managed to cover as underdogs.
Over/Under Trends
- Miami (OH) is 16-10 to the Over this season.
- Ohio has been even stronger to the Over, hitting in 16 of their last 25 games (16-9-1 O/U).
- Miami’s road games tend to go Under (5-6 O/U), while Ohio’s home games have been mixed (10-2 SU, but not a strong Over/Under trend at home).
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a tough call with Ohio’s home success and their dominance in this series, but Miami (OH) has the more explosive offense and a dangerous perimeter attack that matches up well against Ohio’s weak three-point defense.
That said, the Bobcats always seem to find a way to cover in this matchup, and they tend to keep things close at home in conference play. With three of their last four home MAC games decided by three points or fewer, I see another tight one here.
Best Bet: Miami (OH) +5.5
Ohio might win outright, but Miami has enough firepower to keep this within the number. Given Ohio’s struggles defending the three, Miami should get enough open looks to stay in it.
Final Score Prediction: Ohio 79, Miami (OH) 76
Take Miami OH +5.5
