Get key betting insights for South Florida vs Memphis, including odds, analysis, and the best pick for this AAC showdown.
🏀 Game Details
South Florida Bulls (13-17 SU, 9-20 ATS) vs Memphis Tigers (25-5 SU, 14-16 ATS)
AAC College Basketball
Date/Time: March 7, 2025 – 9:00 PM ET
Location: FedExForum – Memphis, TN
TV: ESPN
🔢 Betting Odds (via BetMGM)
- Point Spread: Memphis -12.5 (-110) / South Florida +12.5 (-110)
- Money Line: Memphis -1000 / South Florida +625
- Over/Under Total: 151.5 (o -115 / u -105)
Some sportsbooks opened Memphis as high as -14, but the line has settled at -12.5, with Memphis getting about 65% of the betting volume.
📊 Game Overview
Memphis sits atop the AAC standings at 25-5 (14-16 ATS), while South Florida is near the bottom at 13-17 (9-20 ATS). Memphis has dominated this matchup in recent years, winning 7 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings (6-4 ATS). Earlier this season, Memphis took down South Florida 80-65 as a 6.5-point road favorite.
South Florida's offensive struggles have been consistent all year. They rank #300 in three-point shooting (31.9%) and struggle with efficiency, averaging just 44.7% from the field (#190 nationally). Their defense isn't much better, allowing 73.1 PPG (#213) and struggling to defend the perimeter (32.3% 3P allowed, #102).
Memphis, meanwhile, ranks in the top tier offensively, averaging 74.8 PPG (#148) while holding opponents to 42.1% shooting (#87). Their defense is more reliable, with a strong presence on the glass and an ability to force turnovers.
🔑 Key Matchups & Analysis
1. Memphis' Offensive Firepower vs South Florida's Defensive Weakness
Memphis' balanced scoring attack, led by their solid FG% and ability to control the pace, gives them a significant edge here. South Florida's inability to guard the three-point line and their struggles on the defensive glass (ranked #159 in DREB) make this a tough matchup.
2. ATS Trends Favor Memphis
- Memphis is 6-4 ATS in the last 10 meetings with South Florida.
- South Florida is just 2-9 SU and 4-7 ATS on the road this season.
- Memphis is 12-2 SU at home but only 7-7 ATS at FedExForum.
3. Pace and Total Outlook
South Florida tends to play slower (59.2 FGA per game, #298), but Memphis' tempo and offensive efficiency could push the total toward the over. The previous meeting fell short of the total (under 152), but Memphis' home scoring could change that dynamic.
💰 Betting Pick and Prediction
Memphis is clearly the better team here, but 12.5 points is a lot to lay against a South Florida team that has played them tough in the past. However, Memphis' ability to control the pace and South Florida's offensive inefficiency make this a tough cover for the Bulls.
👉 The Pick: Memphis -12.5
👉 Predicted Final Score: Memphis 81, South Florida 66
Memphis' superior defense and offensive consistency should wear down South Florida, especially at home. Lay the points with the Tigers.
🔥 Final Thoughts
Memphis has the size, depth, and talent edge. South Florida's poor offensive metrics and defensive lapses make them a tough bet here — the Tigers should cruise to a comfortable win.
