Manny Pacquiao vs. Adrien Broner Pick

Manny Pacquiao vs. Adrien Broner Fight Preview and Prediction to Win
When: Saturday, January 19, 2019
Where: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Weight Class: Welterweight: 147 Pounds
Titles: WBA Welterweight Championship
By Scott Levinson, Boxing Handicapper,

Manny Pacquiao, 60-7-2 (39 KOs), General Santos City, Philippines
Adrien Broner, 33-3-1 (24 KOs), Cincinnati, Ohio

Betting Odds: Manny Pacquiao (-250), Adrien Broner (+210)

Manny Pacquiao takes on Adrien Broner on January 19 at Madison Square Garden in a welterweight title bout. It’s a big-name matchup, with Broner very well-known and no introduction really needed for the Filipino future Hall of Famer. By the date of this fight, Pacquiao will have turned 40, while Broner is still not yet 30. In July of 2017 in his last fight, Pacquiao looked good in a lopsided beating of Lucas Matthysse. Broner, on a rough run of late, was lucky to earn a draw against former Manny victim Jessie Vargas when he last appeared in the ring. While Pacquiao isn’t the same fighter he used to be, it would appear it is Broner who faces the more-uphill battle in this one. And the odds indicate the same thing.

Manny is going to be 40. And even that fails to capture the mileage he has actually accrued. This is a 2019 fight and Manny first won a world title in 1998. His career is over a quarter-century old, with 20 of those years spent fighting world-class fighters. Then you consider how a man had to stuff weights into his pants to weigh the minimum allowable weight for a pro fight at one time rose a dozen weight classes over the years, it’s patently clear that he has exhausted the limits of what a pro boxer’s body can withstand. Truth be told, he’s on threadbare tires and that’s not an easy guy to bet on. At some point, it makes sense to start betting against a fighter like that.

However, I feel that Pacquiao’s slippage has generally been over-exaggerated. There was that horrible KO loss to Marquez, the letdown decision loss to Mayweather, and a decision loss to Jeff Horn in 2017. First of all, you don’t fight the legendary Marquez four times and have nothing bad happen. It was a bad loss, but one should be inclined to give him a pass for what amounts to taking one punch in a fight he looked like he was about to win. No one has beaten Mayweather and it’s not like he took a beating in that fight. And the Horn loss is a fight where I defy anyone to sit down with me and show me how they scored that fight for the then-unbeaten Aussie slugger. That may have been his most-troubling outing of the lot, however, as we saw Manny looking a bit shopworn, with waning powers of accepting punishment. But I felt he won. I think with all things considered, he has held up remarkably well. And he might represent a bigger threat to some of the top dogs at 147 pounds than people are saying. In recent outings, he was good enough to beat Tim Bradley, Jessie Vargas, and Matthysse without much trouble.


Talent is still the deciding factor in most fights and from that standpoint; I don’t think Broner can compete with Pac Man. If a Broner backer were to base his pick on Pacquiao’s deterioration, it’s only fair to ponder the pugilistic plight of his opponent. At least Pacquiao has age as an excuse. Broner. 29, has pissed away what looked to be shaping into a memorable career. The man simply thought he was a superstar before he was one. Trouble outside the ring and some uneven performances inside of it have him in an opponent-role. A fighter who looked good against a certain level of opposition couldn’t hang when he started tangling with the big boys, accepting clear losses to Marcos Maidana, Shawn Porter, and Mikey Garcia. And even against Vargas, Adrian Granados, and an aging Paulie Malignaggi, he didn’t distinguish himself.

Whatever worked for “The Problem” at a lower level didn’t translate against the elite or even the semi-elite. And Broner couldn’t respond. With delusions of grandeur, he just continued on, acting like a star fighter even as he’s the clear B-side of these events. He lost his edge. We are now left with a fighter who is more a result of marketing than merit. He stopped evolving and we’ve long since arrived at the point where Broner shines brighter as a celebrity than a fighter. There are things he does well and he has abundant talent, but the development stopped and now he is receding.

Broner is one-dimensional. In the pocket, he has tremendous instincts and is a good fighter—both on offense and defense. He lacks imagination and when opponents fail to oblige him inside, he is without answers. Against Pacquiao, he will be facing a more multi-faceted fighter and a better overall athlete. A speedy fighter who can work the angles and hit hard is like Kryptonite for Broner. Pacquiao can fight at any range, whereas Broner is only effective with a cooperative opponent. Manny, for all his age and wear, still has some of the best feet in the business, with an ultra-advanced understanding of the angles that dictate what happens in the ring.

Again, I don’t want to undersell the angle that Pacquiao is over-the-hill and remains a favorite in his fights, making a bet against him a move that makes sense on some levels. But that’s not enough to bank on when betting on this sport. This is a fight where I think you’re more likely to see the gap in devotion than the freshness-variable. And let’s not forget that Broner isn’t what he used to be, either. Pacquiao is the more-committed and professional athlete. He’s better. He’s faster. He made the sacrifices Broner didn’t make. As a result, his repertoire is greater and he fights with more instinctive know-how. Even at 40, his punches are launched with more suddenness and more velocity.

Broner isn’t very aggressive. He lacks the physicality to rough Pacquiao up on the inside. When looking for someone to thwart the Filipino legend, you’d want a more in-your-face fighter than Broner. If the smallish Broner were a fully-committed fighter, he wouldn’t even be fighting at welterweight, so he lacks the size to trouble Pacquiao. It’d be one thing if he were a big physical force with the preparation and mindset to go to war, rather than an inside sharpshooter who hasn’t shown the power to trouble top-shelf welterweights. Stylistically, I see this fight as being all wrong for Broner.

You would be hard-pressed to go through boxing history and find me a fighter who is a slam-dunk proposition a full two decades after they first strapped on a world title belt. I’m not going to pretend the age and mileage factors aren’t in play, as we’ve seen great fighters hit a wall before, against worse opponents than Broner. I just have a hard time identifying an edge for Broner outside of that. Maybe if Broner spent the time after losing to Maidana working on his craft religiously instead of drinking sizzurp and brawling in bowling alleys, this would be a spot for him to shine. But he didn’t and this is where he pays the price. I like Manny in this one.

Loot’s Pick to Win the Pacquiao vs. Broner Fight: I’m betting on Manny Pacquiao at -250 odds. Did you know… that you could be wagering on the Pacquiao vs. Broner fight at discounted odds? There’s a better than good chance that you’re laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to BetAnySports Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!

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