Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin II Pick

Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin II Fight Preview and Prediction to Win
When: Saturday, September 15, 2018
Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Weight Class: Middleweight
Titles: World Middleweight Championship
By Loot, Boxing Handicapper,

Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, 49-1-2 (34 KOs), Guadalajara, Mexico
Gennady Golovkin, 37-0-1 (33 KOs), Karaganda, Kazakhstan

Betting Odds: Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (+145), Gennady Golovkin (-165)

Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Gennady “GGG” Golovkin will battle it out in a superfight rematch from their fight last year, ruled a controversial draw. The common thinking is that Golovkin deserved the win. But all that will hopefully be settled on September 15. The first fight was an entertaining affair, marred by what many felt was a lousy decision. But with the success he did have in the first fight and the added experience, maybe Canelo can do better. Or perhaps Golovkin will more-decisively handle Canelo. Let’s see if we can find some answers in this Canelo vs. GGG II betting preview.

The rematch was set for May. Canelo ran into some issues with drug testing, twice testing positive for clenbuterol, an offense for which he is still under suspension. Some contentiousness arose, making it hard to close the deal on this rematch. And the particulars at this point are rather insignificant. The fight is set and that’s what matters.

The first fight a year ago in September was a matter of some controversy. The consensus was that Golovkin did enough to win the fight. Canelo started well, but was outworked by a significant clip in the middle rounds. And whatever he did late in the fight didn’t seem to be enough to bridge the gap. There was a vague closeness to the fight perhaps, but the draw was a verdict that was not embraced by many in the sport. Canelo is not an easy man to defeat on the cards. A few close wins in his career and the result of the first fight with GGG attest to that. And those betting against him have to consider that it’s not merely enough to edge Alvarez. To beat the top cash-cow in the sport, you really have to do a number on him.

One thing that could throw a different light on this matchup is the traditional dynamic of a judging backlash. When a rematch is made from a fight where a perceived injustice occurred, the victimized fighter can often times get more benefit of the doubt the second time around. Judges are conscious that a fighter was screwed out of a decision and he can often times get a lot more love on the scorecards the second time around. Maybe GGG will get a fairer shake from the judges in the rematch. Then again, fighting in front of the Canelo faithful could create another scenario where beating Canelo on the cards is just too much to ask.

The timing of this rivalry may also favor Canelo. GGG is now a ripe 36. He didn’t look over-the-hill in their first fight, but it’s fair to say he may have peaked. He hasn’t been as dominant in recent outings, with close fights against Daniel Jacobs and Alvarez in his last two showings. His best fighting might have already come. Canelo is 27 and has youth on his side. Perhaps he can use that youthful edge and benefit from the experience of their first fight and do a little better this time around.


The thing is that Canelo was doing well in that first fight. At full-power, when both fighters are rested, Alvarez looked a little better. His punches stood out more. His hand speed gave him an advantage. The punches he throws are more-varied and it’s understandable how it stood out more to the judges. He has all the punches—hooks, straight shots, uppercuts, and body-punches. He leads with unorthodox advances, leading with uppercuts or straight rights. His work is just generally more judge-friendly. It’s just that peak-Canelo didn’t last for very long and GGG’s fighting style was more-sustainable. And it’s not like Canelo didn’t train hard for the first fight. But after three rounds, he already seemed like a diminished force and though he did some good work after that, he appeared to have a deficit in the stamina category.

While Canelo’s hand speed gave him an edge and allowed him to impress the judges, his feet don’t follow suit. Against GGG, there was a certain predictability to his approach. GGG had him timed. His feet just aren’t very fast and when in retreat, Golovkin was able to stay with him. He can be tagged when retreating and as an offense-first fighter, he leaves himself exposed. His offense is prodigious, but there’s something more-compact about him. He needs a guy to be close. His punches don’t extend and snake out there like Golovkin’s. And against Golovkin, he was far too-erratic. In the 8th round, for example, he hurt GGG with an uppercut in what might have been his best shot of the night. He didn’t follow up and Golovkin ended up winning the round. Again, the stamina issue needs to be addressed.

Golovkin now gets another shot at a win, something many feel he should already have. In the first three rounds of their first fight, GGG struggled, but he was steadfast and it didn’t take him long to zero-in on Alvarez. Despite a record littered with a slew of violent endings, he’s a steady battler who doesn’t get tired. He’s very relaxed in the ring and capable of going 12 hard and fast rounds at the highest levels. He’s not as fast perhaps. His punches are not framed in the judge-friendly way that Canelo’s are. But he has an edge in the finer points. His stamina appeared to be far superior. His mastery of spacing and timing were big problems for Alvarez the first time around. When Canelo would advance or was poised to explode with an eye-catching flurry. Golovkin moved out of the way. He seemed to have Canelo pegged in the first fight.

In the first fight, GGG showed his superior footwork. Whether in side-stepping Canelo’s advances or when attempting to corner or get Alvarez against the ropes, he showed better overall positioning. He has more options from a range standpoint. While Canelo is less-rangy, GGG can do it at long, medium, and close range, though he definitely prefers to have some room with which to work. He has a chin that is pure granite and when tagged, he immediately comes back. He took Canelo’s best punches in September and kept moving forward.

On one hand, it’s hard for me to get away from the fact that GGG is simply the better fighter. That’s a compelling fact for me that renders a lot of other analysis moot. But there is a drawback to taking a -170 favorite like GGG against a guy who seems to always get the benefit of the doubt. Judges aren’t that quick to score a round against Canelo. Even what seemed like an easy decision win for Mayweather against Canelo was only a majority decision. What appeared to be a close win over Cotto was scored as if it were a landslide. The decision against Lara and this last fight also saw Canelo getting the benefit. If a round can be argued for Canelo, he seems to get that round.

In this fight, one could maybe see things being played more on an even field. Again, GGG will carry some mojo as being the fighter who was the victim and the victim typically gets sympathy from judges in rematches. And just from a righteousness standpoint, it would be hard to justify yet another set of scores that are overly-congratulatory to Canelo. With some trepidation due to the politics that are in the sport, I’m going with GGG to get it done this time and to get credit for it.

Loot’s Pick to Win the Fight: I’m betting on Gennady Golovkin to win at -165 betting odds. Bet this fight for FREE by taking advantage of a massive 100% sign-up bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 at GTBets!

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