Canelo Alvarez vs. Daniel Jacobs Pick

Canelo Alvarez vs. Daniel Jacobs Fight Preview and Prediction to Win
When: Saturday, May 4, 2019
Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Weight Class: Middleweight
Titles: World Middleweight Titles
By Loot, Boxing Handicapper,

Saul Alvarez, 51-1-2 (35 KOs), Guadalajara, Mexico
Daniel Jacobs, 35-2 (29 KOs), Brooklyn, New York

Betting Odds: Canelo Alvarez (-335), Daniel Jacobs (+275)

Saul “Canelo” Alvarez defends his middleweight title against fellow 160-pound beltholder Daniel Jacobs on May 4 in Las Vegas at the T-Mobile Arena. The 28-year old Alvarez is coming off a KO win at 168 pounds in December, which followed two taxing and controversial bouts with Gennady Golovkin. In this bout, he gets another top middleweight in Jacobs, a fighter who has seen his profile rise significantly in the past several years. Will Canelo stay on the winning-track or can Jacobs spoil those plans?

Jacobs, 32, has had a remarkable career, one that required untold perseverance to get to this point. I think that’s an important trait to consider in a fight like this. After a nice build-up, he fell so hard in his first big test—gutted and filleted by the now-forgotten Dmitry Pirog, who was in fact a major talent. That was almost a decade ago. Shortly after that, he had a dire cancer diagnosis, but fought all the way back and started to rebuild. Before long, he was on the precipice once again and his first-round KO of unbeaten Peter Quillin showed he was all the way back.

In 2017, he took on Gennady Golovkin in a fight many thought would be another easy triumph for GGG. Jacobs, however, gave Golovkin all he could handle en route to a close decision loss. It was the type of defeat that boosted Jacobs’ morale and standing in the sport. First of all, he has good size at middleweight, a 160-pounder who pares down for the weigh-in, but enters the ring closer to 180 pounds. He is tall at nearly six-feet with a long reach and in terms of stature, will be one of Canelo’s more-formidable opponents. He can really whip in hard shots and has learned more about defense and how to protect himself from incoming fire. The view on the part of many is that the middleweight division is all about GGG and Canelo, with everyone else way back in the pack. But Jacobs has shown he might be right in that mix. A lot of people think he did better with GGG than Canelo did in their two fights.


To get into the debate of whether Canelo deserved either the draw or the win in his two fights with GGG doesn’t really serve a purpose. Regardless of how you may have scored those bouts, he is undoubtedly elite. Canelo at 28 has seen everything a guy can see in the ring, having taken on a varied roster of top fighters over the course of many years now. His credentials are above reproach, even for those who feel he may have caught some breaks from the judges along the way. He is a completely together fighter with an abundance of talent, professionalism, and world-class experience.

In addition to the question of whether Jacobs can hang with someone like Canelo is the issue of if he’ll even get credit for it. On paper, beating Canelo in Las Vegas on Cinco de Mayo weekend seems like a tall order. And let’s face it, Canelo is a darling of the judges. He is the top money guy in the sport. Judges, whether subconsciously or not, find it difficult to vote against the top-dog and that doesn’t just apply to Alvarez. It’s been a part of the sport since time immemorial.

Potential Jacobs backers, however, need to factor this into their equation. A look at Canelo’s past shows it’s just not easy to beat him on the cards. Against Austin Trout and Erislandy Lara, close fights were scored lopsidedly for Alvarez. In a bout with Miguel Cotto where there didn’t seem to be much to separate the two, Canelo won a whitewash. After being schooled by Mayweather, one of the judges scored it a draw. And there are a whole lot of people who don’t think he won either fight with GGG and Canelo came out of that two-fight series at 1-0-1.

So now you see Canelo on Cinco de Mayo weekend in Vegas against a well-known, but hardly famous fighter in Jacobs. The mind can’t help but go to the question “Can Jacobs even win a decision in this spot?” Is it possible Jacobs needs to win 9 rounds to get a draw? Or will we see what we’ve seen before in some cases when judges start to register all the unfair scores in Canelo’s favor and backlash a little? Whatever the conclusion may be, it’s hard to bet against Canelo at this point.

Whether Jacobs could have done more after the GGG loss is up for debate and he did score three wins since then to at least remain active. I personally would have liked to see a little more since his near-triumph against GGG. He won three decisions against good, but not great opposition. Then you look at Canelo’s body of work and see a constant stream of top opposition, making it seem like maybe he’s more-seasoned for this type of fight. But at least Jacobs has been active, sustained a minimum amount of mileage, and kept himself viable by continuing to win.

Still, Jacobs represents a different challenge for Canelo on a few different levels. His dimensions could be an issue, as he’s a more-wiry fighter with that snappy kind of power you see with more-lanky punchers. Jacobs can generate some real menace with his punches and can short-circuit opponents’ brains when he connects. Whereas Canelo has moved up to 160, Jacobs has been at this weight forever and has mastered making weight, while coming into the ring nearly 25 pounds over the 160-pound limit. It’s a little bit of a different look for Canelo.

I give credit to Team Alvarez for taking this fight. He could have made this an easier challenge, as Jacobs is in fact a very dangerous task and a champion in his own right. Jacobs offers some different challenges to Canelo from a physical and tactical standpoint. I just think that in this setting against this opponent that Alvarez finds a way to once again navigate himself to the winner’s circle.

Loot’s Pick to Win the Fight: I’m betting on Canelo Alvarez at -335. Did you know… that you could be wagering on fights at discounted odds? There’s a better than good chance that you’re laying inflated odds with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to BetAnySports Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!

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